The AI Iceberg

The diffusion of AI through society and the economy is like the proverbial iceberg - what we observe is merely the visible tip, while the majority remains hidden beneath the surface.

Some speculative observations:

Unofficial AI Usage: The majority of AI utilization “at work” happens unofficially and goes unrecorded. Workers quietly and nonchalantly incorporate tools like ChatGPT into their daily workflows because it helps them do their job better and the cost can be rounded down to zero. For every worker using their company’s sanctioned and deeply integrated “copilot” there are thousands who JFDI with their own provisions.

Opaque AI Lab Developments: Leading AI laboratories maintain secrecy around their research and development. We only know what they release, and even though the pressure to release fast is significant, there are hints that much more goes on behind closed doors. This is true even for labs releasing “open” models.

Invisible AI Content: While poorly generated AI content is easily identifiable, high-quality AI-produced materials like text and images often goes undetected. We only notice AI's failures, not its successes. A lot more content you encounter every day is AI-generated than you might imagine.

Silent Business Integration: Many companies integrate AI into their systems and processes without public disclosure. They do this to preserve their competitive advantage, and to avoid public criticism, sometimes justified and in other cases not, of their reliance on AI.