Decisionator v0

Beyond Pro/Con Lists: A Better Way to Make Decisions

We've all heard the classic advice: "When you can't decide, make a pro/con list!" While this suggestion seems sensible on the surface, it actually has a fundamental flaw. Pro/con lists assign equal weight to all factors, creating a deceptive simplification of complex choices. This approach can inadvertently reinforce our existing biases rather than lead us to truly informed decisions.

In reality, decision-making is far more nuanced. Each factor we consider carries different weights in two dimensions: probability and impact. Some outcomes are highly likely but have minimal impact, while others might be less probable but could significantly affect our lives. This complexity is completely lost in the simple addition and subtraction of a pro/con list.

The solution lies in expected value (EV) calculations. While there are sophisticated models available, even a basic approach can dramatically improve our decision-making. The key is to evaluate each factor along two axes:

• Impact: Range from completely negative to completely positive

• Likelihood: The probability of this factor actually materialising

By multiplying impact by likelihood for each factor we can arrive at a much more meaningful comparison between different options.

After years of performing these calculations manually in spreadsheets or on paper, I wanted to create something better. In the past, when building a new tool would require some investment in programming, I might not have bothered, but with end-to-end UI programming agent v0, I was able to develop Decisionator - a simple but powerful tool with a retro-inspired UI that helps visualize and calculate expected values for different decision factors. What would have been a complex programming project in the past took just 15 minutes of chatting with an AI. And I’m thrilled to share the result with you.

To use Decisionator, just add the different options you are considering (for example: “Pizza” or “Burger”, or “Vacation in Hawaii”, “Climb to the top of the Kilimanjaro”, “Stay home and chillax”). For each option, add all the relevant factors (for example: “Great Insta opportunities” or “I’ll miss home”) and for each factor place the dot on the graph to indicate the impact (from -1.0 - completely negative, to 1.0 - completely positive) and probability (from 0.0 - no chance at all, to 1.0 - definitely going to happen). Decisionator will calculate the EV for each option and help you identify the best option.

Happy deciding!